2024 United States presidential election

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2024 United States presidential election
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538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
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2024 electoral map, based on the 2020 census
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic




2024 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2020 2024 2028 →

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election to a second, nonconsecutive term.[3] If Trump wins, he would become the second president to achieve nonconsecutive terms, after Grover Cleveland. If both Biden and Trump are nominated by their respective parties, it would mark the first presidential rematch since 1956. A number of primary election challengers have also declared their candidacies for the nomination of both major parties. The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. It will occur at the same time as elections to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House; several states will also be holding gubernatorial and state legislative elections.

Prior to the general election, political parties will choose their nominees at nominating conventions. Delegates to the nominating conventions will be chosen by voters in state-level caucuses and primary elections. In October 2023, anti-vaccine activist[4][5] and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his run as an independent presidential candidate.[6] By the next month, Kennedy's polling was at the highest levels for a candidate outside the two major parties since Ross Perot in 1992.[7][8]

The Colorado Supreme Court[9] and the Secretary of State of Maine have ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office, and as such disqualified from appearing on the ballot, due to his role in the January 6 Capitol attack. However, the rulings are stayed pending appeal.[10][11]

This is the first presidential election to occur after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Abortion access,[12][13] healthcare,[14] education,[15] the economy,[16] foreign policy,[17] border security,[18] LGBT rights,[19] and democracy[20][21] are expected to be leading campaign issues.

Background

Procedure

Main article: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[22] Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are running for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[23] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[24]

Election interference

Main article: Election interference
Further information: Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, January 6 United States Capitol attack, and Big lie § Donald Trump's false claims of a stolen election

Donald Trump did not concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing false claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of February 2024.[25][26] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[27]

Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[28][29][30] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[31] Many Republicans are concerned with attempts to prevent former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary, including impeachment and indictment.[32]

Electoral map

Effects of the 2020 census

Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[33][34] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[35]

Historical background

Further information: Red states and blue states
Expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.

In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[36] North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[37] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[38][39][40]

The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[41][42] whites who have attended college[43] or live in urban areas.[44] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[45] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[46] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[47] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[48]

Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping.[49][50][51][52][53] However, some political analysts[54] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[55] and heavy non-response bias.[56][57][58][59] Other pollsters, such as YouGov, have shown no statistically significant generational or racial depolarization among the electorate.[60][61]

Impact of third-party voting

Main article: List of third-party and independent performances in United States presidential elections

While independent/third-party candidates often do better in polls than actual election performance,[62] early polling suggests there could be a strong showing for third-party candidates in 2024. Third-party candidates currently have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[63] Polls are especially high for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the Democratic Party primaries to run as an independent.[64]

Campaign issues

See also: 2024 United States elections § Issues

Abortion

Main article: Abortion in the United States

Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[12] The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[65] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[12][65]

Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[66] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[67] By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[12]

Biden has called on Congress to codify abortion protections into federal law, and held many rallies on the issue.[68][69] Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[70][71]

Border security and immigration

Main article: United States border security concerns

Polling has shown that border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[72][73] In 2023 and 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[74] In response to the influx of migrants, Republican controlled states such as Texas and Florida have been busing migrants to major sanctuary cities controlled by Democrats such as New York and Chicago.[75][76] Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions, deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[75] The Biden administration has undertaken a policy of providing temporary protections to migrants from certain countries such as Venezuela, Ukraine, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti.[75] In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached an agreement on a bill to secure the border, but the bill was opposed by Trump. Biden has pushed back on Republican claims that he could secure the border without Congress.[77] Robert Kennedy, Jr. has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[78]

Democracy

Main article: Democratic backsliding in the United States

Joe Biden is expected to frame the election as a battle for democracy, which was similar to his framing of contemporary geopolitics as "the battle between democracy and autocracy."[79] Biden's rhetoric previously cited democracy and "a battle for the soul of our nation" as the key message of his 2020 presidential campaign, and uses it as a recurring element in his rhetoric since the 2020 presidential election.[21]

Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[80][81][82] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[83] Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[84][85] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[a] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[92] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, and Trump's baseless predictions of vote fraud in the 2024 election,[93] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[83][94][95][96]

Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[20]

Economic issues

Main article: Economy of the United States
Further information: U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[97][98][99] The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024.[100] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[101][102] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[103]

Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[104] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[105]

Both Biden and Trump signed pieces of economic legislation in their first terms which they may tout in the 2024 campaign.[106] Biden signed the American Rescue Plan,[107] Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,[108] Inflation Reduction Act,[109] CHIPS and Science Act,[110] and the Fiscal Responsibility Act.[111] Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,[112] the CARES Act,[113] and several executive orders providing for de-regulation.[114]

Education

Main article: Education in the United States
Further information: 2020s controversies around critical race theory

Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $132 billion. The forgiveness has largely focused on public servants, people who were defrauded, and people in repayment for long periods of time.[115] In August 2022, Biden announced he would sign an executive order that would forgive large amounts of student debt, including $10,000 for student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000 and $20,000 for recipients of Pell Grants.[116][117] In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska.[118][119] In the aftermath of the decision, Biden has continued with more limited student loan forgiveness.[115] His plans have been criticized by Republicans as irresponsible spending.[120] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[121]

Some Republican candidates and prospective candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[122][123][15] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[124]

Foreign policy

Main article: Foreign policy of the United States

The ongoing Israel–Hamas war and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the election.[125]

The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[126][127][128] Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan, arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in "protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression."[129] Some candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, claim that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[130] Vivek Ramaswamy favors ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine and would recognize Russian annexed territories.[131]

During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for Israel, and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[132] Biden has requested 10.6 billion dollars of aid for Israel to Congress.[133] Biden's support for Israel has been criticized by progressives and Muslim leaders, many of whom have indicated they will not vote for Biden over the war.[134] Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[135] Trump has given mixed messages on the war, pledging to support Israel and take a tough line on Iran, while also criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and praising Hezbollah.[136]

Healthcare issues

Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, a key issue of the 2024 election.[14] The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system,[137] and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[138] Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[139] West is running on a platform of Medicare-for-all.[140] Biden has touted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which expanded the Affordable Care Act and included provisions to reduce prescription drug prices for people on Medicare.[141]

LGBT rights

Main articles: LGBT rights in the United States and Transgender rights in the United States
Further information: 2020s anti-LGBT movement in the United States

In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[142][143]

In his term as president, Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified protections for same-sex and inter-racial marriage into law. Additionally, he has endorsed the Equality Act, legislation aiming to extend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to offer protection on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation across various domains such as in the workplace, housing, and health care sectors. In 2023, Biden directed the federal government to provide strategies to states on how to enhance access to healthcare and suicide prevention resources for the LGBT community.[144]

In a February 2023 campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left.”[citation needed] Ron DeSantis has signed several anti-LGBT laws as Governor of Florida, including the Florida Parental Rights in Education Act, referred to by critics as the "Don't Say Gay" law, which prohibits speaking about sexual orientation and gender identity in Florida public schools.[145]

Democratic Party

Main articles: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries and 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidates
Current popular vote results of the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries

On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[146][147] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[148] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[149] and some prominent Democrats (Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham) publicly urged Biden not to run.[150][151][152] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[153] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[154] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[155][156] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[157]

Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[158] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[159] A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer and he promotes conspiracy theories.[160][161] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[162] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[163]

Declared candidates

Declared major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date 		States won Delegates won Total popular vote[164] Running mate Ref

Joe Biden 		November 20, 1942
(age 81)
Scranton, Pennsylvania 		President of the United States
(2021–present)
Vice President of the United States
(2009–2017)
U.S. Senator from Delaware
(1973–2009)
Delaware
Campaign

April 25, 2023
FEC filing[165]
Website

3
(NH[b], SC, NV) 		91
(100.0%) 		304,028 (83.1%) Kamala Harris[166] [167]

Dean Phillips 		January 20, 1969
(age 55)
Saint Paul, Minnesota 		U.S. Representative from MN-03
(2019–present)
CEO of Phillips Distilling Company
(2000–2012)
Minnesota
Campaign

October 26, 2023
FEC filing[168]
Website

None 0
(0.0%) 		26,616 (7.3%) None [169]

Withdrew during the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced 		Campaign
suspended 		Campaign Bound
delegates 		Popular
vote 		Ref.

Marianne Williamson 		July 8, 1952
(age 71)
Houston, Texas 		Author
Founder of Project Angel Food
Candidate for President in 2020 		 California March 4, 2023 February 7, 2024
Campaign
FEC filing[170]
Website 		0
(0.0%) 		10,924 (3.0%)[failed verification] [171][172]

Withdrawn candidates before the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced 		Campaign
suspended 		Campaign Total popular vote[173] Ref.

Robert F.
Kennedy Jr. 		January 17, 1954
(age 69)
Washington, D.C. 		Environmental lawyer
Founder of Children's Health Defense
Founder of Waterkeeper Alliance 		 California April 19, 2023 October 9, 2023
(running as an independent)
Campaign
FEC filing[174][175]
Website 		[176][177]

Republican Party

Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Current results of the 2024 Republican presidential primaries

Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[178] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[179][180] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[181] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[182]

In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[183] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[184][185]

Trump could become ineligible to be on the ballot in Colorado, with the Colorado Supreme Court ruling in its December 2023 decision Anderson v. Griswold that he violated the Insurrection Clause of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution for his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack, though the decision is currently stayed.[186] The Supreme Court of the United States agreed to hear Trump's appeal for the Colorado case, scheduling oral arguments for February 8.[187] Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows also ruled in December 2023 that Trump cannot appear on the ballot in Maine, also citing the Insurrection Clause.[188][11] The decision is stayed pending the outcome of the Supreme Court's decision in the Colorado case, according to a ruling made by Superior Court Justice Michaela Murphy on January 18. Murphy instructed that Bellows should issue a new ruling within 30 days of the Supreme Court rendering its decision.[189]

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[190][191][192] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[193] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[194] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[195]

Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has since gained ground and was in second place in New Hampshire, in polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics, as of early November 2023.[196]

Declared candidates

Declared major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date 		Bound
delegates 		Contests
won 		Popular
vote [197] 		Ref.

Donald Trump 		June 14, 1946
(age 77)
Queens, New York 		President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Chairman of The Trump Organization
(1971–2017)
Florida[c]
Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[198][199][200]
Website 		33
(53.2%) 		4
(IA, NV, NH, VI) 		232,634 (53.5%) [201]

Nikki Haley 		January 20, 1972
(age 52)
Bamberg, South Carolina 		Ambassador to the United Nations
(2017–2018)
Governor of South Carolina
(2011–2017)
South Carolina State Representative
(2005–2011)
South Carolina
Campaign
February 14, 2023
FEC filing[202]
Website 		17
(27.4%) 		0 161,518 (37.1%) [203]

Withdrew during the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced 		Campaign
suspended 		Campaign Bound
delegates 		Popular
vote[197] 		Ref.

Ron DeSantis 		September 14, 1978
(age 45)
Jacksonville, Florida 		Governor of Florida
(2019–present)
U.S. Representative from FL-06
(2013–2018) 		 Florida May 24, 2023 January 21, 2024
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[204][205][206]
Website 		9
(14.5%) 		25,732 (5.9%) [207]
[208]

Asa Hutchinson 		December 3, 1950
(age 73)
Bentonville, Arkansas 		Governor of Arkansas
(2015–2023)
Under Secretary of Homeland Security
(2003–2005)
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration
(2001–2003)
  Arkansas April 26, 2023 January 16, 2024
(endorsed Haley)
Campaign
FEC filing[209]
Website 		0
(0.0%) 		296 (0.1%) [210]
[211]
[212]

Vivek Ramaswamy 		August 9, 1985
(age 38)
Cincinnati, Ohio 		Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management
(2022–2023)
CEO of Roivant Sciences
(2014–2021) 		 Ohio February 21, 2023 January 15, 2024
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[213][214]
Website 		3
(4.8%) 		9,263 (2.1%) [215]
[216]
[217]
[218]

Withdrawn candidates before the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced 		Campaign
suspended 		Campaign Popular vote total[197] Ref.

Chris Christie 		September 6, 1962
(age 61)
Newark, New Jersey 		Governor of New Jersey
(2010–2018)
Candidate for president in 2016
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey
(2002–2008)
  New Jersey June 6, 2023 January 10, 2024
Campaign
FEC filing[219]
Website 		1,528 (0.4%) [220][221]

Doug Burgum 		August 1, 1956
(age 67)
Arthur, North Dakota 		Governor of North Dakota
(2016–present)
Senior VP of Microsoft Business Solutions Group
(2002–2007)
President of Great Plains Software
(1984–2001)
  North Dakota June 7, 2023 December 4, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[222]
Website 		180 (<0.1%) [223][224][225]

Tim Scott 		September 19, 1965
(age 58)
North Charleston, South Carolina 		U.S. Senator from South Carolina
(2013–present)
U.S. Representative from SC-01
(2011–2013)
South Carolina State Representative
(2009–2011)
  South Carolina May 19, 2023
Exploratory committee:
April 12, 2023 		November 12, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[226][227]
Website 		196 (0.1%) [228][229][230]

Mike Pence 		June 7, 1959
(age 64)
Columbus, Indiana 		Vice President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Governor of Indiana
(2013–2017)
U.S. Representative from Indiana
(2001–2013) 		 Indiana June 5, 2023 October 28, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[231]
Website 		404 (0.1%) [232][233]

Larry Elder 		April 27, 1952
(age 71)
Los Angeles, California 		Host of The Larry Elder Show
(1993–2022)
Candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election 		 California April 20, 2023 October 26, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[234]
Website 		[235][236]

Perry Johnson 		January 23, 1948
(age 75)
Dolton, Illinois 		Founder of Perry Johnson Registrars, Inc.
(1994–present)
Disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022 		 Michigan March 2, 2023 October 20, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[237]
Website 		26 (<0.1%) [238][239][240]

Will Hurd 		August 19, 1977
(age 46)
San Antonio, Texas 		U.S. Representative from TX-23
(2015–2021) 		 Texas June 22, 2023 October 9, 2023
(endorsed Haley)
Campaign
FEC filing[241]
Website 		[242][243]

Francis Suarez 		October 6, 1977
(age 45)
Miami, Florida 		Mayor of Miami
(2017–present)
Member of the Miami City Commission
(2009–2017) 		 Florida June 14, 2023 August 29, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[244]
Website[d] 		[245][246]

Independent and third party candidates

Main article: Third party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election

Numerous third party and independent candidates have announced presidential runs.

Anti-vaccine activist and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has drawn support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American politics, winning a plurality among independents in some polls.[247][248] He has faced criticism for supporting various conspiracy theories, particularly on the John F. Kennedy assassination and COVID-19 vaccines.[249] Left-wing activist and intellectual Cornel West announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate.[140] Centrist political organization No Labels, which helped create the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in the United States House of Representatives, also said they would consider running a third-party candidate, citing popular polling for such a candidate.[250] Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while others, such as the Libertarian Party and the Green Party have yet to hold their primaries.

Notable party nominations

The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.

With partial ballot access

These parties have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.

Name Party Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date 		Campaign Ref

Peter Sonski 		American Solidarity Party 1962 (age 61–62)
Massachusetts 		Connecticut local politician
Director of the Knights of Columbus Museum 		 Connecticut June 13, 2023
FEC filing[251]
Website 		[252]

Without ballot access

Notable declared candidates

The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Independents

Declared prominent independent candidates
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date 		Campaign Ref

Robert F.
Kennedy Jr. 		January 17, 1954
(age 70)
Washington, D.C. 		Environmental lawyer
Founder of Children's Health Defense
Founder of Waterkeeper Alliance
Anti-vaccine activist 		 California April 19, 2023
(as a Democrat)
October 9, 2023
(as an independent)
Campaign
FEC filing[259][260][261]
Website 		[262][263]

Cornel West 		June 2, 1953
(age 70)
Tulsa, Oklahoma 		Academic and activist  California June 5, 2023
(for the People's Party)
June 14, 2023
(for the Green Party)
October 5, 2023
(as an independent)
Campaign
FEC filing[264][265][266]
Website 		[267]
Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

Green Party

Main article: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries

Publicly expressed interest

As of February 2024, the following notable individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of February 2024, there has been speculation about the potential candidacy of the following notable individuals within the previous six months.

Withdrawn candidates

The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:

Polling and forecasts

Polling aggregation

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[g] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics January 17, 2023 – February 6, 2024 February 8, 2024 43.9% 45.8% 10.3% Trump +1.9
Race to the WH through February 8, 2024 February 8, 2024 43.3% 45.0% 11.2% Trump +1.7
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through February 8, 2024 February 8, 2024 41.9% 43.9% 14.2% Trump +2.0
Average 43.0% 44.9% 12.1% Trump +1.9

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other/
Undecided
[g] 		Margin
Race to the WH through January 24, 2024 January 31, 2024 36.7% 38.7% 12.2% 12.4% Trump +2.0
RealClearPolitics December 6, 2023 – January 24, 2024 February 5, 2024 34.0% 39.0% 16.8% 10.2% Trump +5.0
Average 35.4% 38.9% 14.5% 11.2% Trump +2.9

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other/
Undecided
[g] 		Margin
Race to the WH through January 29, 2024 January 31, 2024 37.1% 39.1% 10.6% 2.3% 10.9% Trump +2.0
RealClearPolitics October 17 – November 28, 2023 January 21, 2024 36.2% 39.0% 15.8% 3.8% 5.2% Trump +2.8
Average 36.7% 39.1% 13.2% 3.1% 8.1% Trump +2.4

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[g] 		Margin
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through January 29, 2024 January 31, 2024 39.6% 42.3% 18.1% Haley +2.7
Race to the WH through January 29, 2024 January 31, 2024 40.9% 43.2% 15.9% Haley +2.3
RealClearPolitics December 10, 2023 – January 29, 2024 January 31, 2024 40.4% 42.0% 17.6% Haley +1.6
Average 40.3% 42.5% 17.2% Haley +2.2

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[g] 		Margin
Race to the WH through December 17, 2023 January 21, 2024 44.5% 47.3% 8.2% Trump +2.8
RealClearPolitics November 10–16, 2023 November 25, 2023 42.5% 51.0% 6.5% Trump +8.5
Average 43.5% 49.2% 7.3% Trump +5.7

Forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters (The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, and CNN) are omitted for brevity.

State EVs PVI[287] 2020
result 		2020
margin[288] 		IE
April 26,
2023[289] 		Sabato
January 3,
2024[290] 		Cook
December 19,
2023[291] 		CNalysis
December 30,
2023[292] 		CNN
January 31,
2024[293]
Alaska 3 R+8 52.8% R 10.06% Solid R Likely R Solid R Very Likely R Solid R
Arizona 11 R+2 49.4% D 0.31% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Colorado 10 D+4 55.4% D 13.50% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean D
Florida 30 R+3 51.2% R 3.36% Lean R Likely R Likely R Very Likely R Lean R
Georgia 16 R+3 49.5% D 0.24% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Iowa 6 R+6 53.1% R 8.20% Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Maine[h] 2 D+2 53.1% D 9.07% Likely D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Solid D
ME–02[h] 1 R+6 52.3% R 7.44% Lean R Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Lean R
Michigan 15 R+1 50.6% D 2.78% Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean R
Minnesota 10 D+1 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Lean D
NE–02[h] 1 EVEN 52.0% D 6.50% Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup
Nevada 6 R+1 50.1% D 2.39% Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
New Hampshire 4 D+1 52.7% D 7.35% Lean D Lean D Likely D Very Likely D Lean D
New Mexico 5 D+3 54.3% D 10.79% Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Lean D
North Carolina 16 R+3 49.9% R 1.35% Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R
Ohio 17 R+6 53.3% R 8.03% Likely R Likely R Solid R Very Likely R Solid R
Oregon 8 D+6 56.4% D 16.08% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean D
Pennsylvania 19 R+2 50.0% D 1.16% Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup
Texas 40 R+5 52.1% R 5.58% Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Solid R
Virginia 13 D+3 54.1% D 10.11% Likely D Likely D Solid D Very Likely D Lean D
Wisconsin 10 R+2 49.5% D 0.63% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Overall D – 247
R – 235
56 tossups 		D – 260
R – 235
43 tossups 		D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups 		D – 226
R – 219
93 tossups 		D – 225
R – 272
41 tossups

Debates

Main article: 2024 United States presidential debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates announced on November 20, 2023, it will host four debates in 2024.

  1. September 16 at Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas (presidential debate).
  2. September 25 at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania (vice presidential debate).
  3. October 1 at Virginia State University in Petersburg, Virginia (presidential debate).
  4. October 9 at University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah (presidential debate).

To qualify for the debates, candidates must appear on enough ballots to be able to win a majority of the electoral votes, must be constitutionally eligible, and poll an average of at least 15% in national polls from organizations selected by the commission.[294] Currently,[when?] Kennedy has the polling numbers that would allow him to be on the stage, which could mark the first third-party candidate to be on the stage since Ross Perot in 1992 if his polling trends continue.[295][better source needed][296]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Attributed to multiple references:[86][87][88][89][90][91]
  2. ^ Primary not sanctioned by the DNC.
  3. ^ Trump's state of residence in 2016 was New York, but his state of residence changed to Florida when he moved to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.
  4. ^ Archived August 23, 2023, at the Wayback Machine
  5. ^ Ayyadurai is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for office.
  6. ^ Cassidy is a member of the Republican Party, but has expressed willingness to talk to the group No Labels about a third-party run.
  7. ^ a b c d e Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. ^ a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.

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